Hall of Famers

It's been 2 1/2 years since the gang and I last evaluated active major league baseball players' chances at getting in the Hall of Fame. With so many developments since then (McGwire's snubbing, Palmeiro's, Bagwell's and Biggio's retirements, Reyes's and Wright's breakthroughs), I thought I'd take another crack at it. I'll divide players into five categories and offer likelihood percentages, where applicable. I'll only include players with three major league seasons under their belts, so you won't see Justin Verlander or Hanley Ramirez here. Feel free to let me know who I missed.

Definite Hall of Famers if they retired today, in order of credentials
Greg Maddux
Alex Rodriguez
Pedro Martinez
Randy Johnson
Mike Piazza
Frank Thomas
Ken Griffey, Jr.
Tom Glavine
Mariano Rivera
Ivan Rodriguez
Derek Jeter

and, if they let cheaters in (which I think they should)
Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens

Hall of Fame Candidates if they retired today
Trevor Hoffman (97%)
Manny Ramirez (96%)
John Smoltz (95%)
Chipper Jones (65%)
Jim Thome (60%)
Curt Schilling (55%)
Todd Helton (40%)
Omar Vizquel (35%)
Jim Edmonds (20%)
Mike Mussina (15%)
Jason Varitek (15%)

and, if they let cheaters in (which I think they should)
Sammy Sosa (75)
Gary Sheffield (60%)

Hall of Fame Candidates with a few more good seasons
Johan Santana (98%)
Vlad Guerrero (97%)
Ichiro Suzuki (70%)
Andruw Jones (60%)
David Ortiz (55%)
Carlos Beltran (50%)
Billy Wagner (40%)
Jorge Posada (35%)

and, if they let cheaters in (which I think they should)
Andy Pettitte (40%)
Miguel Tejada (35%)
Jason Giambi (15%)

On pace to be Hall of Famers, barring catastrophe
Albert Pujols (95%)
Miguel Cabrera (80%)
Jose Reyes (75%)
Roy Oswalt (65%)
David Wright (65%)
Jake Peavy (65%)
C.C. Sabathia (55%)

Hall of Fame Candidates with many more good seasons
Ryan Howard (50%)
Brandon Webb (45%)
Roy Halladay (45%)
Alfonso Soriano (45%)
Carl Crawford (40%)
Chase Utley (40%)
Carlos Zambrano (35%)
Lance Berkman (35%)
Travis Hafner (30%)
Magglio Ordonez (25%)
Ryan Zimmerman (25%)
Robinson Cano (20%)
Justin Morneau (20%)
Dan Haren (15%)